Economic Update

Economic resistance is about to be tested September is rarely a great month for investors, and last month proved no exception. Broadly, both equities and bond values declined and there is increasing sentiment that the 2023 market recovery is running out of steam or may even be turning. This may seem surprising to investors as…

Central bank hawks still determined to defang inflation This time last week, it still seemed as if European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers would hold off on another rate hike, following some dire economic data. But on Thursday, the ECB raised its deposit rate once again by 0.25% to an all-time high of 4%. Markets took…

Oil prices up and an ill wind for renewables So far Markets have been generally quiet during September, but energy is again becoming an issue. Oil prices have risen since the start of the summer, with Brent crude having bounced along a bottom of $73 per barrel for the first half of 2023. Compared with…

New school term has the US top of the class Summer is officially over, but we are none the wiser regarding the direction of the economy. Or are we? Generally, the inflation backdrop continues to ease, although not fast enough for comfort according to Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Huw Pill. He wants interest…

Bonds are back Last week was another difficult one for both equity and bond markets. As a result, the positive returns of July have mostly been erased so far in August. Overall, world markets are largely unchanged from a year ago. Many commentators have pointed to the rise in global bond yields as a big…

Core inflation slowdown equals upbeat equity markets We wrote at the end of last week that markets were still absorbing the prospect of another round of significant interest rate rises from central banks, and that equities would therefore come under further pressure. But by the end of last week equity markets had risen sharply, with…

Markets sour on news of resilient economy The second quarter’s positive stock market returns were driven by a somewhat surprising improvement in investor sentiment. At the end of March the fear was that the US regional banks crisis would create a more pronounced slowdown than previously anticipated, which it did not and also while bond…

A glass half-full half year The second quarter ended with positive sentiment towards global risk assets (Although UK assets have fared less well), a surprising turnaround given the black clouds that gathered back in March amid the  US regional bank crisis. Markets have responded well to more earnings positivity from analysts, but the biggest change…

Market conundrums amid volatile growth Equity markets moved higher last week, despite central bank hawkishness. We had another 0.25% rate rise from the European Central Bank (ECB) and, although the US Federal Open markets Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged, they gave us and through their ‘dots plot’ they gave us strong hints of at least…

Disinflation sentiment cheers investors Last week was another positive one for global stock markets, with the narrative of a soft economic landing in 2023 appearing to gather support. Stock market gains in June have been spreading to the mid and small cap market segments, rather than just for a handful of mega-caps. In the US,…